Salience of information as an explanation for risky choice framing effects

Kahneman and Tversky famously used the Asian Disease Problem (ADP) to demonstrate the influence of framing on decision-making. When a choice is framed as a gain (e.g. the number of people saved is emphasized), participants are often risk-averse. However, when the choice is framed as a loss (e.g. the number of people who died is emphasized), they are often risk-seeking. This choice reversal is conventionally explained using Prospect Theory, which provides a useful general framework, but one that does not make specific mechanistic commitments. To explore potential drivers, we examined the effect of changing choice domain (e.g. trees vs people), and the salience of those afflicted (e.g. 6 People vs 6 Family Members). We found systematic deviations from choice patterns seen in the original ADP. These deviations led us to propose a new computational model that invited consideration of the possibility that accessibility of implied loss is a key mechanism underlying the ADP and its variants.