The effect of political misperceptions during the Brexit referendum campaign

In this project I aim to test the effect that misperceptions (that is, false or unsubstantiated beliefs about politics) have on the way people vote in binding referendum elections. Through the quantitative analysis of raw data from the British Election Study, I aim to assess whether misperceptions played an important part during the EU Membership Referendum (also known as Brexit) that took place in June 2016. Although there is extensive literature regarding political misperceptions, and extensive literature on direct democracy as well, no study has closely sought to analyze how political misperceptions occur during referendum campaigns and the manner in which they can affect their outcomes. At a time when more and more important decisions are being handed to the electorate in the form of referendums, it is essential to understand the role that misperceptions play during these campaigns and whether they can distort the value of direct democracy. First I aim to establish what political misperceptions were pervasive during the campaign. Once this is done, I will try to prove that political misperceptions did indeed influence the final outcome of the Brexit referendum that resulted in Great Britain's decision to leave the European Union.